Monday, March 15, 2010

Subidón of the mortgage credit

He says today The Country that The banking re-opens the faucet of the credit to the housing buyers. The text, since you can see, does not contain really "hard" information. Only impressions, experts' opinions (often anonymous)...
But in the edition in role there appears a spectacular graph, which does to him after one says: "golly, yes that they are changing the things". It is this:

Before you thrill more of the account, throw a glance to the numbers of the vertical axis: the minimal value is 1.049.000 (million euros) and the maximum 1.063.000. Namely that the subidón of the graph, from the minimal value of February to the maximum of November is of... slightly more than 1,3 %.
An example of book as how does the use of the truncated axes serve to transmit a visual impression that has little to do with the numbers that exist behind. On the other hand, the select variable, which is the balance of the living mortgage assets (it should have been specified in the graph), perhaps is not most adapted to illustrate, precisely, the credit authorization rhythm, since the monthly change is small, as regards the existing piled up whole. That turns out to be better in a graph that represents exactly the monthly change of this balance of mortgage assets, like this one of the last report of the AHE (pdf):

The graph is objectionable for other reasons, and it is too complicated, I suppose, for a newspaper (perhaps with lines instead of bars it would be publicable). But at least it allows to see how 2009 started very badly (the new loans were minor than the amortizations in January and February) and then it has gone slightly better (the assets balance has grown in every month less I wither, that has always been a mop). But also it allows to see that the recovery has been very weak: the balance scarcely grows in September, October and November, and all the numbers are worse than those who existed even at the beginning of 2008 (let's not say already the previous years). Frankly, safe from what it has spent from November, to speak that the banks "open the faucet" seems risky.

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