Sunday, March 14, 2010

Subidón of the mortgage credit (2)

The yesterday graph of The Country not only had problems of scale. Also, as I indicated of spent, the variable to which it was referring was the entire living balance of the existing mortgage loans in Spain, which cannot be related straight to the loans for the housing buy granted every month, already quea) it includes so much loans for housing as other mortgage loans (promoters, you manage, agrarian, commercial). b) to the being the clear balance of the assets, is the result of the difference between assets of the new loans and assets reduced by amortization and cancellation. This way, an increase of 2.000 million assets can be the result both of the authorization of 4.000 millions and the amortization of 2.000, and of the authorization of 10.000 millions and the cancellation of 8.000.
Therefore, if what we want to know is how the crediting goes for housing, the information of the AHE is not too informative. I have remembered of that there is a much more direct source to inform us about that, to which also the newspapers refer often: the statistician of registered mortgages publishes the INE every month, disintegrating for types (urban, rural, housing, lots...), and reporting of the number of mortgages, the average amount, and the entire amount. Therefore, it is possible to see perfectly the evolution of the monthly authorization of mortgages for housing, without the hodgepodge of information of the AHE.
The only tone is that, on having talked each other of registered mortgages, it is possible that there is a certain delay with regard to the dates in those who sign the notarial writing, which it will be when the banks take into account them, and perhaps when the AHE counts them also. But nevertheless, it looks like to me a clearly top statistics if what we want to know it is how the credit authorization goes for the housing in Spain.
And this is what we find. First, the graph from 2003 to 2009 (November) (click to extend).

And then the graph for the last twelve months with information (dic08-nov09) (click to extend):

I would say that these graphs, which are more excellent enough for the topic of the news (that he was speaking about loans for the buy of the housing), count a history well different from that of the yesterday graph. Safe about that the statisticians of December and January say another thing, I believe that the faucet continues more or less as it was one year ago.

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